Lithium battery aluminum foil processing fees are rising, the industry has set off a wave of production expansion, and the market is anxious about the inflection point of supply and demand

Financial Associated Press, July 14 (Reporter Luo Yichen) Driven by the demand for downstream lithium batteries , the prosperity of lithium battery aluminum foil continues to heat up, which in turn triggers the influx of upstream and downstream manufacturers in the industry, and the industry turning point may accelerate.

Financial Associated Press learned that since the beginning of this year, the processing fee of lithium battery aluminum foil has continued to rise. However, under the influence of the production expansion, the expectation that the price of processing fee will be lower next year has been strengthened. Throughout this round of production expansion, there are many voices of controversy inside and outside the industry. Some points of view point out that the customer certification, yield rate and technical iteration of lithium battery aluminum foil are facing many tests, and the actual output and production capacity planning may have a large deviation.

"The process requirements of lithium battery aluminum foil are very high. We started to do it in 2010. At the beginning, the yield rate was 40%-50%, and it gradually increased to about 73% now, which cost a lot of research and development and capital. The current production of ordinary aluminum foil In fact, many manufacturers do not have the ability to switch to lithium battery aluminum foil, and manufacturers who did not originally do aluminum foil have to cut into such a high threshold field, and the actual results still need to be considered." A reporter from Cailian Press called Dingsheng New Materials (603876.SH) as an investor. ), the relevant staff responded to the pressure of competition.

The industry's profit-making effect continues

According to the aforementioned person from Dingsheng New Materials, the average processing fee of lithium battery aluminum foil was about 15,000 yuan/ton last year, and the average was 16,500 yuan/ton in the first quarter of this year.

The increase in processing fees has driven the performance of industry companies to rise. Dingsheng New Materials announced on July 14 that it expects to achieve a net profit of 510 million to 610 million yuan attributable to the parent in the first half of the year, and it will show a rising trend quarter by quarter. The company said that the performance growth was mainly driven by battery aluminum foil, and the production and sales volume increased significantly compared with the same period last year.

Benefiting from the long certification cycle of lithium battery aluminum foil, the market generally expects that the supply shortage will continue throughout the year, in other words, the high prosperity is expected to continue. The aforementioned person from Dingsheng New Materials said that it generally takes 2-3 years from production to certification of lithium battery aluminum foil, and there should be no significant increase in the supply side this year.

New energy vehicles will continue to boom in the second half of 2022, the supply and demand gap of power lithium battery aluminum foil may further widen, and the processing fee of power lithium battery aluminum foil will continue to rise. possible.

Supply and demand anxiety caused by production expansion

The huge profits of lithium battery aluminum foil have also attracted a group of enterprises to cross-border layout, and the production capacity planning of Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ) is the most eye-catching.

On July 13, Tianshan Aluminum announced that it plans to invest in a new phase of battery aluminum foil with an annual output of 200,000 tons, and implement a technical transformation project with an annual output of 20,000 tons of battery aluminum foil. After the project is put into operation, all aluminum foils for new energy batteries will be produced, and its products can be widely used as positive and negative electrode materials for battery devices such as new energy vehicles, energy storage power stations, and charging devices .

A reporter from the Financial Associated Press noticed that the scale of Tianshan Aluminum's expansion far exceeded previous market expectations. At the 2021 annual performance briefing held in April this year, the company's management released the information that "the first phase plans to build a 100,000-ton power battery foil project for new energy vehicles, and strive to put it into production in 2023." In just 3 months, the company The production capacity planning of lithium battery aluminum foil has rapidly doubled. In order to understand the reasons behind this adjustment, a reporter from the Financial Associated Press tried to call the company but was unable to get through.

Although Tianshan Aluminum has not announced the construction time of 200,000 tons of battery aluminum foil, the scale of this production capacity is enough to be "distinguished" in the domestic market. As the industry leader, Dingsheng New Materials is expected to produce about 150,000 tons of lithium battery aluminum foil this year, and there are plans to expand production. Among other major manufacturers, Wanshun New Materials has the largest production capacity. The company's battery aluminum foil production capacity is about 40,000 tons, and there are about 130,000 tons of production capacity under construction. Shenhuo Co., Ltd. (000933.SZ) has an existing lithium battery aluminum foil production capacity of 5.5 10,000 tons are still going through the certification process, and there will be 60,000 tons of new plans in the future.

Regarding this round of vigorous production expansion, some industry analysts told the Financial Associated Press that there will definitely be pressure on growth in the next few years, and the supply side will grow rapidly. It is expected that the price center of processing fees will move down in the next year.